The Atlanta Braves were certifiable juggernauts last season, and the expectation is that they would be just that once again in 2024. With roughly seven weeks of regular season left to play, though, the 2024 Braves are very much not such a thing.
Coming off a wreck of a weekend series against the lowly Colorado Rockies – one that saw them blow a six-run eighth-inning lead in the finale – the Braves have now lost seven of their last eight. That span also includes a home sweep at the hands of the Milwaukee Brewers in which the Braves were outscored 34-12. All of that puts them 7 1/2 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the National League East, which in turn presents them with long odds of winning the division for a seventh straight year.
While the Braves are narrowly clinging to the third and final NL wild-card spot, they've got a gaggle of teams just off the pace. Going into Monday's slate, the Braves lead the New York Mets for that last playoff berth by just a half-game. The St. Louis Cardinals and San Francisco Giants are just 1 1/2 games back of Atlanta, and three more teams are within five games of them. It's a jumbled fray, and the Braves are narrowly on top of it only because the Mets were swept by the Seattle Mariners while the Braves were busy dropping two of three to the Rockies.
Atlanta's uninspired play also isn't a recent phenomenon. Coming out of April, the Braves were a robust 19-9 and looking like the best team in baseball. Since the start of May, however, the Braves are five games below .500, and they've managed only one winning month during that stretch (they had a 14-13 mark for June). Right now, they're on pace for 84 wins, which would be their lowest full-season tally since 2017 and constitute a 20-game decline relative to last season.
The leading culprit in all of this is of course the loss of their two best players to injury – reigning NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. to a torn left ACL suffered in late May and Cy Young hopeful Spencer Strider to a season-ending UCL tear that showed up after just his second start of the season. You simply cannot lose two contributors of that level and not feel it quite acutely in the standings.
That's not all that ails the Braves, but the good news for Atlanta is that what's guiding their present struggles may not persist the rest of the way. Let's have a look at those two factors plus one other that may make the Braves one of the favorites to claim one of those three NL wild-card slots.
The offense, even without Acuña Jr., hasn't lived up to expectations, but that may be changing
The Braves' offense, which racked up a gaudy 947 runs last season, has been a largely punchless attack in 2024. Veteran DH Marcell Ozuna is once again a power force at the plate, but he's about the only core hitter who's performed as advertised this year. The good news is that there's ample cause to believe the Atlanta offense as a whole has been unlucky. First, they rank a respectable seventh in the NL in OPS, but that's out of step with the fact that they also rank 11th in the NL in runs scored.
Second, and most important, they've been one of the unluckiest teams in MLB at the plate. If you look at an advanced metric called weighted on-base average, or wOBA (what's this?), you'll find that the Braves rank 13th in MLB – respectable but not necessarily commendable. However, take a gander at expected wOBA, or xwOBA (what's this?), which estimates deserved outcomes at the plate, you'll find the Braves are tied for eighth among the 30 teams. In other words, the Braves' hitters as a group have been pretty unlucky on two levels – converting production into runs and converting the quality of their batted balls into production. Those trends could self-correct over the remainder of the season.
Specifically, you're seeing hitters like Austin Riley and Sean Murphy start to find their more accustomed levels at the plate. The recently re-acquired Jorge Soler has also been on a heater since joining the Braves, which gives them some sorely needed thump in the outfield. As well, second baseman Ozzie Albies (fractured wrist) should be back for the final week-plus of the regular season, a stretch that includes a likely pivotal three-game home set against the Mets.
Injuries have waylaid the rotation, but there's hope ahead
The Braves have given at least one start to 13 different pitchers this season, which in large measure speaks to their health woes in the rotation. In addition to the loss of Strider, Max Fried missed almost a month with forearm neuritis. He's struggled in two starts since his return, but the expectation is that he'll soon find his accustomed level. Breakout starter Reynaldo López has been a revelation this year, but he's been out with a forearm issue of his own. The good news is that he's begun throwing and should soon make a minor-league rehab start. That means, barring a setback or change of plans, López is within a week of rejoining the Atlanta rotation.
Looking forward, it's possible age-related decline has finally come for 40-year-old Charlie Morton (4.47 ERA/4.76 FIP), but he hasn't been a glaring liability. Chris Sale remains a rejuvenated ace at the front end, and Spencer Schwellenback has nicely passed muster at the back. A vintage Fried and a healthy López – it's reasonable to anticipate both of those things coming to pass – turn the rotation into a strength. That could be the case soon enough.
The bullpen should be fine
Yes, the Atlanta relief corps has had a grim go of it lately and endured some untimely meltdowns. Overall, though, this still looks like a solid unit. On the season, the Braves' bullpen ranks third in the majors with a relief ERA of 3.38 and second in MLB with a relief FIP, or their "deserved" ERA based on fundamental indicators, of 3.56. Setup depth from the right side is perhaps a concern, but overall this remains a solid unit. The nature of bullpen performance and the small sample sizes that inform it are such that wild performance swings are part of it. What's recently afflicted the Atlanta bullpen is probably that.
The remaining schedule is mostly a soft one
The rest of the way, the Braves will play a narrow majority of their remaining games at home. As well, those remaining opponents on average have a record that's just below .500, which means the Braves rank 18th in strength of schedule left to play. That's a potential soft edge for the Braves, although it should be noted that the Mets have a similar docket left to play when it comes to degree of difficulty.
Despite the recent ugly baseball and the obvious decline from 2023 levels, the Braves according to SportsLine still have a 52.4% chance of making the postseason – tops among those angling for the final NL wild-card berth. So they'll probably make it, and as we've seen time and again merely getting to the playoffs means you have a realistic shot of hoisting the trophy. The Braves are hardly on firm footing right now, but there's cause to believe they'll wind up standing on just that.
